No. 14

Latest close: Tue, Sep 22

DiurnaFinance

The daily record of markets & money

Morning BriefNo. 11

10-year yield rises above 5.00%; bitcoin jumps 5.9%

In Friday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%, the Dow fell 0.2%, gold settled at $4,424.90 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $100.30 a barrel.

This archive edition was compiled from official historical data on September 23, 2026, when Diurna began publishing.

Stocks

The benchmark S&P 500 ticked up 0.17% to 7,650.50. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.18% to 51,682.64. Smaller companies lagged: the Russell 2000 lost ground 0.50%.

The S&P 500 has gained 11.8% so far in 2026 and stands 1.9% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, slumped to 14.81, below its long-run average of about 19.4.

Rates

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 5.01%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, rose 9 basis points to 4.76%. At the long end, the 30-year yield rose to 5.34%.

That left the 10-year yield 25 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88%. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.68% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.33%, as of Friday.

U.S. Treasury yield curveYield by maturity
September 18, 2026One month earlier (Aug 19)One year earlier (Sep 18)

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Currencies

The euro eased 0.18% to $1.1460 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar soared 1.41% against the yen to ¥157.89 and the British pound eased to $1.3344. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track.

Commodities and bitcoin

WTI crude declined 1.6% to $100.30 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, declined 0.9% to $103.87 a barrel.

U.S. natural gas futures crept higher 0.4% to $2.912 per million British thermal units. Gold ticked up 0.6% to $4,424.90 an ounce, and silver gained 1.7% to $66.56 an ounce.

Bitcoin soared 5.9% to $80,844.

On the calendar

No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.

Coming up

  • Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart of the day

Core PCE inflation3.3% · July 2026

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Core PCE inflation was 3.3% in July, essentially unchanged from the prior month. That is up from 2.9% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 1.0% (June 2020) to 5.6% (September 2022).

What it measures. The 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Why it matters. The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target is set in terms of the PCE price index, and officials often describe the core measure as the better guide to where inflation is heading.

The numbers

InstrumentLastChg%YTD52-wk range
Stocks
S&P 500 7,650.50 +12.74 +0.17% +11.8%
Nasdaq Composite 26,522.55 +104.25 +0.39% +14.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 51,682.64 −95.40 −0.18% +7.5%
Russell 2000 2,860.40 −14.23 −0.50% +15.2%
Cboe Volatility Index 14.81 −0.63 −4.08% −0.9%
Treasury yields
3-month Treasury bill 4.14% +2 bp +47 bp
2-year Treasury 4.76% +9 bp +129 bp
5-year Treasury 4.86% +8 bp +113 bp
10-year Treasury 5.01% +7 bp +83 bp
30-year Treasury 5.34% +5 bp +50 bp
Currencies
Euro (EUR/USD) $1.1460 −0.0021 −0.18% −2.5%
Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ¥157.89 +2.20 +1.41% +0.8%
British pound (GBP/USD) $1.3344 −0.0032 −0.24% −0.9%
Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) 6.6976 −0.0099 −0.15% −4.3%
Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) 1.4010 +0.0015 +0.11% +2.3%
Swiss franc (USD/CHF) 0.8257 +0.0012 +0.14% +4.2%
Australian dollar (AUD/USD) $0.7120 +0.0006 +0.09% +6.5%
Mexican peso (USD/MXN) 17.1776 −0.0105 −0.06% −4.4%
Commodities
WTI crude oil $100.30 −1.61 −1.58% +74.7%
Brent crude oil $103.87 −0.95 −0.91% +70.7%
Natural gas $2.912 +0.011 +0.38% −21.0%
Gold $4,424.90 +25.20 +0.57% +1.9%
Silver $66.56 +1.09 +1.66% −5.1%
Copper $6.615 +0.028 +0.43% +17.5%
Digital assets
Bitcoin $80,844 +4,478 +5.86% −7.8%

Closing levels for September 18, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.

Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.